Prices by efficiency and size
| Efficiency | Installed price |
|---|---|
| Standard, 80% AFUE | $3,500–$5,500 |
| Mid-range, 90–95% AFUE | $4,500–$7,000 |
| High-efficiency, 96%+ AFUE | $5,500–$8,500+ |
| House size | Installed price |
|---|---|
| Under 1,200 sq ft | $3,500–$5,500 |
| 1,200–2,000 sq ft | $4,500–$7,000 |
| 2,000–3,000 sq ft | $5,500–$8,500 |
| 3,000+ sq ft | $6,500–$10,000+ |
On top of the unit itself: standard installation labour runs $1,200 to $2,500, and a job needing ductwork or venting changes runs $2,500 to $4,500. Converting from oil or electric heat to gas adds $1,500 to $3,500.
What does the rebate actually pay for?
Ontario’s Home Renovation Savings program, delivered by Save on Energy with Enbridge Gas, lists these amounts on its own page:
| Upgrade | Rebate |
|---|---|
| Cold climate air source heat pump | Up to $7,500 |
| Ground source heat pump | Up to $12,000 |
| Attic insulation | $1,250 |
| Insulation bundle | Up to $7,700 |
| Windows and doors | $100 per rough opening, bundle only |
| Smart thermostat | $100 |
| Gas furnace | Not listed |
Two honest caveats. The program page does not publish an end date, so treat any deadline a contractor quotes you as their assumption rather than a fact — check the Save on Energy page yourself on the day you decide. And eligibility rules, contractor requirements and pre-approval steps change; confirm them before you buy equipment, not after.
Single-stage, two-stage or modulating?
This is the choice that moves the unit price most:
- Single-stage — $2,500 to $4,000 for the unit. Full blast or off. Cheapest, noisiest, biggest temperature swings.
- Two-stage — $3,500 to $5,500. Runs at low output most of the time, which is quieter and more even.
- Modulating with variable-speed blower — $5,000 to $7,500+. Adjusts continuously; noticeably more comfortable in a house with cold rooms, and the only one that reliably justifies its premium in a larger or drafty home.
A useful test of a contractor: ask why they proposed the size they proposed. The right answer mentions a heat loss calculation for your house. The wrong answer is “same as the old one” — an oversized furnace short-cycles, wears faster and heats unevenly.
How long does a furnace last?
Fifteen to twenty years with annual servicing, twelve to fifteen without it. If yours is past fifteen and has needed two repairs in two winters, you are usually spending money to delay a purchase rather than to avoid one.
Replacing in September costs less and is easier to schedule than replacing in January. An emergency replacement in a cold snap is the worst position a homeowner can negotiate from, and every HVAC company knows it.
Red flags in an HVAC quote
| What you see | Why it matters | What to do |
|---|---|---|
| Size chosen to match the old unit | Oversizing is the most common installation fault and it costs comfort and lifespan | Ask for the heat loss calculation that justifies the size |
| No TSSA-certified technician named | Gas work in Ontario requires TSSA certification | Ask who will do the gas connection and for their certification |
| Rebate presented as guaranteed | Programs change and eligibility has conditions; a promise is not an approval | Check the Save on Energy page yourself and confirm any pre-approval step before buying |
| “Today only” pricing in a cold snap | Emergency timing plus urgency pressure is where people overpay most | Get a second quote even in an emergency; space heaters for one night cost less than a bad decision |
| No mention of venting or ductwork | A high-efficiency furnace vents differently and may need new piping and a condensate drain | Ask whether venting and duct changes are included or extra |
| Warranty only described as the manufacturer’s | Parts warranty and labour warranty are separate and the labour one is usually short | Ask for both in writing with years stated |
Frequently asked questions
It depends on your house, your insulation and your electricity costs, and it deserves a real comparison rather than a rule of thumb. What is certain is that the current provincial rebates are pointed at heat pumps, not furnaces.
Gas work must be done by a technician certified by the Technical Standards and Safety Authority. Ask which certified person will make the gas connection, and keep the paperwork for your insurer.
Fifteen to twenty years with annual maintenance, and twelve to fifteen without it. Once a furnace is past fifteen and needing repeated repairs, replacement usually costs less over the next few winters.
Ontario’s Home Renovation Savings program does not list gas furnaces among its eligible upgrades. It pays up to $7,500 for a cold climate air source heat pump and up to $12,000 for a ground source system. Check the program page for current terms.
The size should come from a heat loss calculation for your house, not from the size of the old unit. An oversized furnace short-cycles, wears out sooner and leaves uneven temperatures between rooms.
Most homeowners pay $4,500 to $7,000 installed for a mid-to-high-efficiency gas furnace in 2026, within a full range of $4,000 to $10,000. Size, efficiency tier, brand tier and any venting or ductwork changes set where you land.
Sources
- FurnacePrices.ca, Furnace prices in Ontario, updated 18 September 2026 — furnaceprices.com
- Save on Energy, Home Renovation Savings program page — saveonenergy.ca, checked 18 September 2026
- Government of Ontario, Your rights when starting home renovations or repairs — ontario.ca, checked 18 September 2026
Prices are published ranges collected on 18 September 2026, not quotes. Rebate amounts and eligibility change — confirm on the program page before you buy.
More Carpenter Bee guides
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A bedroom costs $450 to $800 to paint in Ontario, a whole three-bedroom house $6,500 to $13,000. Labour is 70 to 85 percent of that — the paint is almost a rounding error.
Installed heat pump prices in Ontario, what the provincial rebate really pays, and the electrical, ductwork and permit costs the rebate does not touch.
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